Tuesday, 5 December 2006

Srilanka

Civil war looms after botched assassination

Terror grips Colombo’s streets once again. Words and photos by ash smyth in the Sri Lankan capital

December 05, 2006
It was 10:40 am on Friday when a Tamil Tiger suicide bomber drove his rigged trishaw headlong into a government convoy passing through central Colombo. He failed to hit his mark, but succeeded in killing two security guards as well as himself. Owing to mid-morning congestion, the blast was largely absorbed by surrounding vehicles, seven of which were destroyed.
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The target was Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse. He escaped unharmed, but the precision of the attack was ominous, the bomber pointedly ignoring several alternative convoys en route to his target.

Police and military reached the scene in minutes, proof that a fresh wave of attacks was anticipated. In the past weeks, military checkpoints have sprung up across the city; vehicles are being stopped and searched at random; the tourist spot of Galle Face Green (opposite the army HQ) has been declared off-limits; and navy patrol boats can be seen just off the coast.
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The reason for this heightened security - and the catalyst for the suicide attack - was last Monday's Heroes' Day speech by the Tigers' leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran.

His annual broadcast on behalf of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is a traditionally bellicose affair, and is often marked by violence somewhere around the capital. But this year the message was resoundingly unambiguous: the Tigers are returning to war to pursue their dream of an independent state.

In previous years, the governmenthas suffered the indignity of public LTTE marches accompanying the Heroes' Day celebrations; but after several months of increasing military activity, Prabhakaran took the precaution of issuing last week's aggressive announcement from hiding, broadcasting it via Tamil television and radio stations.

The assassination attempt is part of a pattern, following an attack in April against army commander, General Sarath Fonseka. The general and Rajapakse are the architects of Colombo's uncompromising stance on Tamil terrorism. And since Rajapakse is also the president's brother, the attack could hardly have been better calculated to provoke a violent reaction. On cue, the government initiated its default response - calling for peace talks and bombing Tamil military targets in the north and east.

So what direction now, for SriLanka? Despite President Rajapakse's offer of negotiations, full-scale conflict will probably be renewed. Posters have appeared around Colombo, demanding that the LTTE be banned. The parliamentary opposition has called for the 2002 ceasefire deal to be torn up. The government is considering emergency powers.

The government will never give any ground on the Tigers' fundamental demand - independence. Meanwhile, it has asked Norwegian peace envoys to suspend contact with the LTTE. Since the EU declared the LTTE a terrorist organisation, Norway has been the rebels' only outside hope.

Some are now suggesting that Sri Lanka's decades-long turmoil can only be decisively ended on the battlefield. But even in Colombo's partisan press, many commentators are already asking if this is a war that either side will ever really win.


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